Although value sales are up, grocery price inflation is the main factor behind this rather than more spending. Grocery inflation rose by 3.7% in the 12 weeks to 17 March 2024, which is down a significant 12.3 percentage points versus March 2023.

This is the eleventh month in a row that there’s been a drop in inflation, which will be very welcome news for consumers. While it’s the lowest inflation level we have seen for two years, shoppers in Ireland are still on the hunt for value with over 25% of value sales coming from promotions.

Easter puts the Spring in March sales

With Easter on the horizon and Easter eggs hitting the shelves earlier every year, it’s no surprise that Irish consumers have been stocking up on classic seasonal treats. During the month of March nearly half of all Irish households purchased Easter eggs, which is up 13.1 percentage points versus last year. Shoppers spent a mammoth €24.6 million on Easter Eggs and which was an additional €9.3 million versus last year.  However, many also opted for other popular Easter treats spending €1.1 million on hot cross buns, which are up 28% year-on-year.

Retailers have also been bumping up promotional activity during Easter with over 51% of value sales of Easter eggs sold on promotion. Alongside promotions, retailers are also placing an emphasis on own label lines to get shoppers through the doors. Sales of own label performed strongly, growing ahead of the total market at 5.5% year-on-year and holding value share of 48%, with shoppers spending an additional €80.5m year-on-year.

Premium own label ranges continued to perform well with shoppers spending an additional €172m on these lines, 12.3% increases compared to this time last year. Brands also saw growth over the 12 weeks of 3.8%, slightly behind the total market.

Online sales were up 16.7% year-on-year with shoppers spending an additional €26.5 million online year-on-year. New shoppers, alongside larger trips, boosted online’s overall performance by €16.3 million.

Irish retailer performance update

Dunnes holds 24% market share with growth of 7.7% year-on-year. This growth stems from more frequent trips, up 5.4%, which contributed an additional €38.2 million to overall performance.

Tesco holds 22.8% of the market, up 7.5% year-on-year. Tesco has the strongest frequency growth amongst all the retailers for another month in a row, which contributed an additional €50.8 million to the overall performance.

SuperValu holds 20.4% of the market with growth of 3.1%. SuperValu shoppers make the most trips in-store when compared to all retailers, 21.3 trips on average and a boost in volume per trip, which contributed an additional €12.4m to the overall performance.

Lidl holds 13.5% share with growth of 5.4% year-on-year. More frequent trips contributed an additional €30.9 million to its overall performance. Aldi holds 11.5% market share with more frequent trips contributing an additional €6.4 million to the overall performance.

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Grocery inflation stands at 4.7% in the 12 weeks to 18 February 2024, this is down 1.2 percentage point versus January (5.9%) – the tenth month in a row that inflation has fallen.

It’s great news for Irish consumers as inflation levels have reached their lowest point since April 2022. This gradual decline is expected to continue throughout 2024.

As consumers continue to closely manage their household budgets and look for the best value, it’s no surprise that own label goods continue to perform strongly. We saw this behaviour over the course of 2023 and it’s clear to see this is now a more established norm for shoppers into 2024.

Own label now holds 46% market share as sales of own label ranges grow ahead of the total market at 7.5% year-on-year, with shoppers spending an additional €112m year-on-year. Premium own-label ranges are performing strongly with shoppers spending an additional €19m on these lines, a 12.5% increase compared to this time last year. Sales of brand goods were also up 4.7% over the 12 weeks, growing slightly behind the total market.

Promotional levels increased after the post-Christmas slowdown as retailers looked for ways to encourage shoppers through the door. Over 27% of all spend in the 12 weeks to 18 February 2024 was made on items with some promotional offer, up 3.9% versus last year.  Dunnes, Tesco, Aldi and Lidl all saw strong growth in sales on promotion ahead of the total market.

Love is in the air

Love was most definitely in the air for Irish consumers this month with over 58% of Irish households purchasing boxed and gifting chocolates over the 12 weeks to 18 February 2024. We saw volumes of boxed and gifting chocolates up 3.7%, with shoppers spending an additional €1.7 million year-on-year. As Valentine’s Day fell mid-week this year and many shoppers managing household budgets, some people chose to show their love at home. Shoppers spent an additional €4.3 million on chilled ready meals, €1.8 million on chilled desserts and €916k on sparkling wine.

Valentine’s Day wasn’t the only celebration in February with many Irish shoppers indulging in Pancake Tuesday, which saw shoppers spend a combined additional €2 million on flour, eggs and chocolate spread.

Online sales were up 17.3% year-on-year with shoppers spending an additional €28.3 million online versus last year. The main contributor to this performance was more frequent trips, which contributed an additional €7.7m. Alongside frequency, the online channel continues to attract new shoppers with 18.4% of Irish households purchasing groceries online alongside picking up slightly more volume, up 0.5% year-on-year.

Irish retailer performance update

Dunnes, Tesco and Lidl all grew ahead of the total market in terms of value this month.

Dunnes has 24.3% market share with growth of 8.9% year-on-year. This growth stems through more frequent trips, up 5.9%, which contributed an additional €46.7 million to the overall performance.

Tesco holds 23.5% of the market, up 8.8% year-on-year. Tesco saw the strongest frequency growth amongst all retailers for another month in a row, up 12.4% year-on-year, which combined contributed an additional €91.8 million to the overall performance.

SuperValu holds 20.6% of the market and growth of 4.2%. SuperValu shoppers make the most trips in-store when compared to all retailers, an average of 20.9 trips.

Lidl has 12.8% share with growth of 7.2% year-on-year. More frequent trips contributed an additional €34.7 million to the retailer’s overall performance. Aldi holds 10.9% market share with more frequent trips and new shopper arrivals contributing an additional €5.2 million to the overall performance.

The average price per pack rose by 3.7%, while volume per trip fell by 3.1%.

However, the frequency of trips increased by 3%, year on year, remaining a key contributor to market growth.

Grocery inflation this period went down by 11.7 percentage points, compared to the same 12-week period last year.

It stands at 4.7% – down by 1.2 percentage points since January (5.9%) – making February the tenth consecutive month wherein grocery inflation has fallen.

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Following a record-breaking festive period in December 2023, take-home grocery sales are starting to slow with a more moderate 2.2% increase in the four weeks to 21 January 2024, according to our latest data. In January, the average price per pack rose 3.7%. Although sales have slowed compared to last month’s mammoth 7.8% increase, shoppers still spent an additional €21.4m compared to the same time last year.

Grocery inflation stands at 5.9% in the 12 weeks to 21 January 2024, which is down 1.2 percentage point compared to 7.1% in December.

Many Irish consumers are keeping a very close eye on their purse strings after indulging over the festive period and to help manage household budgets, many are trading down to supermarket’s own label products and looking for deals. The amount of sales on promotion has grown by 9.9% year-on-year with shoppers spending €92.6 million more than last year with, meaning that 28.9% of all value sales this period were on promotion.

Sales of own label lines are performing strongly and growing ahead of the total market at 8% year-on-year, holding value share of 44.9% and with shoppers spending an additional €117m year-on-year.

Premium own label ranges also performed well with shoppers spending an additional €157m on these lines with growth of 10.3% when compared to this time last year. Brands also saw growth over the 12 weeks of 5.2%, but this is slightly behind the total market.

New year, new resolutions

Health always becomes a top priority after an indulgent festive season, with many Irish consumers kicking off 2024 with good intentions. Shoppers cut back in more ways than one this month. Across Ireland consumers took on ‘Dry January’ with alcohol sales falling by 8.6% and shoppers spending €7.4 million less during January compared to last year. Sales of non-alcoholic beverages jumped 8.9% with shoppers spending €125,000 more year-on-year. Almost 7% of Irish households purchased in the category over January with a volume increase of 3.9%.

However, Veganuary didn’t have the same impact this month. Despite nearly 38% of Irish households purchasing chilled or frozen plant-based products, sales fell 2.6% with shoppers spending €200,000 less compared to last year. With many shoppers returning to normality after the festive break, they opted for ease when adjusting to routines and, as a result, spent an additional €3.3 million on chilled convenience.

Online sales remained strong into 2024. In the 12 weeks ending 21 January 2024, sales were up 17.7% year-on-year with shoppers spending an additional €28.2 million. The main contributor was more frequent trips, which contributed an additional €12.7 million to its overall performance. Online continues to attract new shoppers with 18.5% of Irish households purchasing groceries online with volume up 0.8 per centage points year-on-year.

Irish retailer performance update

Dunnes, Tesco and Lidl all grew ahead of the total market in terms of value this month.

Dunnes hit a new record share of 24.6% with growth of 9.9% year-on-year. Dunnes growth stems from a boost in new shoppers, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year which is the highest growth in new shoppers among all the retailers, and alongside more frequent trips, contributed a combined additional €38.1 million to overall performance.

Tesco holds 23.8% of the market, also a new record for the retailer, with growth of 9.4% year-on-year. Tesco had the strongest frequency of trips growth amongst all the retailers again, up 11.8% year-on-year, which combined contributed an additional €88.4 million to overall performance.

SuperValu holds 20.6% of the market with growth of 4%. SuperValu shoppers make the most trips in store when compared to all retailers, an average of 21.1 trips, contributing an additional €9.4 million to overall performance.

Lidl holds 12.5% share and growth of 8.2% year on year. More frequent trips contributed an additional €30.9 million to its overall performance. Aldi holds 10.8% share, with more frequent trips and new shopper arrivals contributing an additional €5.9 million to its overall performance.

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Shoppers in Northern Ireland may see their annual grocery shop rise by £826 despite drops in grocery price inflation, a report has said.

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